R02 · Countdown calculation

The countdown is not a measurement and not a forecast. It is a transparent arithmetic continuation of stated assumptions.

Calculation

The starting point is a remaining global CO₂ budget from the beginning of 2026. [Q01] Germany is assigned 1.1% of that budget using the per-capita approach employed by the SRU. [Q02]

From this calculated German starting budget, the display subtracts a constant 573.5 million tonnes CO₂ per year from 1 January 2026 onward. This is the German CO₂ emission figure reported by the UBA for 2025. [Q03]

The displayed remaining time is the same remaining budget divided by the same annual rate, converted using an average calendar year. It is therefore mathematically coupled to the remaining-budget display.

If the assumed annual emissions change, the rate changes. If the scientific budget estimate changes, the starting value changes. The calculation does not claim that German emissions will in fact remain constant at 573.5 million tonnes per year.